Handbook of the Orphan Ministry

at the LBS Mwika (HUYAMWI)

paper 10: Statistics 2005

Released  1.6.06 – Author: Rev. Dr. Martin Burkhardt

A.   Data Sources

1.               Reports from 9 pilotparishes (out of 11) using the method of the HuYaMwi counter book collected with other data at the end of 2005.

2.               Information from the registry form from six new network parishes

B.  Analysis of the Base

1.               The base are 18382 children between 0-18 years from the ELCT ND, this are almost  11,9 %of the 153.503 registered children of the whole diocese.

2.               The statistic shows, that 11,1% of all children are orphans. This means that we can estimate that there are 17039 orphans in the diocese.

3.               Taking this estimate as granted,  HuYaMi is now reaching 11,9% of all orphans.

C.  Visible Results

1.             Difference between rural and urban area

The highest reported rates are from urban area:  Kisamo 13,6%, Rau 29,2%, Pasua 23,2%, Majengo 21,2%, where as many of the lowest rates are from rural area: Msae 3,5%, Maringa 9,2%, Kirimeni 6,1%, Kiruweni 9,9%.

2.             Possibility to raise local income

The report from our pilot parishes shows, that there is an average rate of 15% of local income

3.             Good registry is focusing the target group

a)    By kicking out orphans who have grown up or have moved away. (more than 20% of the original target group)

The total number of registered orphans compared with recent researches (2003-2005) is now only 80,5%. This means almost 20% of the once registered orphans are not longer present in the congregations are not longer below eighteen years.  The effect might even be bigger, as since the last censor new orphans had been registered.

b)    By removing orphans who are not really in need ( 25% or the original target group.

Using the different clusters to measure the needs of the orphans (group 0-5) we can again reduce the target group for almost 25%, as only 74,8% are in cluster 3-5 (small help, long term help, emergency)

4.             Splitting up the Target group in different action clusters.

From all reported orphans from the pilot parishes 785 are classified as needy orphans. Theses split up in three groups:

Need for small Help

489

62,29%

Need for long Term help

238

30,16%

Emergency Cases

58

7,38%

-       In a new censor we must evaluate this data also including age groups

-       We must develop action plans for each target group investigating the volume of needed help.

-       Compared with these target groups HuYaMwi is already doing a lot. For example we are providing scholarships for almost 50 orphans, this is almost 21% of action cluster “Need for long term help”. Additional we are are reaching this cluster with our SIP- program and with our Building fund.

D.  Is the number of orphans still increasing?

That we have almost 20% less orphans compared with recent evaluations needs to be discussed carefully.  None of the pilot congregations reported a high rate of new cases. The number of orphans either staid at the same rate ( Shokony 102,7%, Himo 100,6%) or it dropped  extremely (Msae only 40%)

Of course  this effect can be explained by a better method to register the orphans, but it means also that not to many new orphans have been registered in 2005.

Also the rate of orphans has not changed extremely since our last evaluation in 2004, wher it was almost 9,7% now we have 11,1 %. The difference of 1,4% may also be caused by a different base.